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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 8 October 2018

8 Oct 2018



S&P500 showed some signs of weakness over the last week. The index remains well above its January’s highs (2873). Short-term momentum indicator are weakening very fast. We see risks of further declines over the coming days/weeks. The index is likely to break the 50-day moving average (2876). A move below the January high is likely (2873). We define a target level at 2845. MACD is weakening very fast, which justify a very cautious stance

EuroStoxx 50:

Following an upward move to the 200-day moving average, Euro Stoxx 50 has showed a pull back over the last week. Long-term momentum indicators continue to have a negative bias, suggesting that the index may still disappoint on the downside. Near-term support level defined at 3342. We will look for positive technical signals that could support a rebound towards the 50-day moving average (3407) in the short-term. Medium-term setup remains cautious. Weakening pattern since the May high remains intact and may push the index below  3262-3274. Daily momentum indicator are again weakening which increases short-term downside risks…


PSI20 was not able to extend its recovery. Sharp decline over last week has pushed the index to the September low (5208). Once again, PSI20 failed below the 50-day moving average. Medium- and long-term momentum indicators continue to have a negative bias, suggesting that the index may still disappoint on the downside. in the short-term, a positive reaction around the September low is possible…Downtrend since the May high remains intact. Target defined at 5180 and then 4988 (50% retracement of the June 2016 – January 2018 upward move). MACD is weakening again…


Strong rise over the last week allowed the index to break its August’s high (81792). Thursday’s session showed some consolidation, still above the August high. Following the recovery already seen in daily and technical momentum indicators a more neutral stance is favoured. Near-term support level defined at 81176-82806. Long-term backdrop is also slowly improving. Nevertheless, for now, we prefer to be on the sidelines, searching for new technical signals, even though we recognise that the index may have the necessary technical support to move closer to the 2018 highs. MACD is approaching an important level…


For now, we do not see signs suggesting a change in the direction of the trend. Therefore, and considering tailwinds coming from long-term technical momentum indicators, we continue to see as possible further attempts to extend the upward move in WTI. WTI reached the July high, as suggested by last’s week commentary. Recent pullback reflects the overbought condition seen in some daily momentum indicators. Short-term support seen around $73.06. On the upside, our next target projection would be defined at $79.32, which would imply a 61.8% recovery of the decline recorded between 2013 and 2016.


Gold was able to show positive signs over the last week. The move towards the 50-day moving average ($1200) shows that the technical backdrop may support a stronger recovery from August’s low. Daily momentum indicators continue to recover, while medium-term technical indicators remain at a low level. A break of the 50-day moving average would target $1214. Above that level, we define targets at $1222 and $1235-$1239. We remain cautious in the medium-term. MACD may now be able to rise through the “zero”…


The suggested stronger recovery didn’t materialise. The EUR/USD has now corrected 61.8% of the upward move recorded from the August’s low. A short-term recovery is possible if there is some relief following the decline seen in daily technical indicators. The 50-day moving average now stands at 1.1596$/€ and could be a target. However, with long-term momentum indicators still weakening, we see risks that the EUR/USD could be pushed closer to its August’s low (1.1301$/€). Will EUR/USD be able to rebound in the short-term?

DXY - US Dollar Index

Long-term uptrend remains intact. Medium- and long-term momentum indicators are still favourable. We see as possible a move closer to the 2017 highs (103.82) over the coming months. Will MACD break the “zero”?


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