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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 6 September 2018

6 Sep 2018

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S&P 500:

S&P500 reached a new all-time high on 29 August and retreated afterwards. Some technical indicators didn’t confirm the new high, which is a negative signal. We see risks of a break below the gap of 24 August 2018 (2876-2885). This could trigger a further pullback. 2842-2852 could be the next relevant support area for the index. After reaching an “overbought” condition, RSI pulled back

Euro Stoxx 50: 

The Euro Stoxx 50 failed to break its 50-day moving average and retreated strongly over the last week. Euro Stoxx 50 is currently close to the 9 February and 5 March 2018 lows. A further downward move towards the low of 26 March 2018 (3262), could lead to some stabilisation or even recovery in the near-term. Medium-term setup remains cautious. We see risks of a break below 3262 (low of 26 March 2018), which could, in turn, push the index towards the target interval of 3151-3191. We see risks of further deterioration of MACD…

PSI20:

PSI20 was not able to cross its 200-moving average and pulled back in the last week, reaching our first downside target at 5351. A further retracement to February 2018 low (5249) could, in turn, be followed by some short-term recovery. We see risks of a break below 5249. This could, in turn, trigger a further move in the downside. We define a target interval at 5123- 5175. 

BOVESPA:

Bovespa was not able to break its 200-day moving average and pulled back below its 50-day moving average over the last week. Contrarily to what happened in the last 2 years, the 200-day moving average seems to be a resistance now. Bovespa was not able to move above it in late July and in the end of August. Short-term technical backdrop is deteriorating. A recovery is possible in the upcoming days. However, we see risks of a stronger retracement towards 7000. MACD didn’t push through “zero” and is deteriorating once again…

WTI:

WTI achieved the defined target interval ($69.85-$71.13), which, however, seems to be a resistance now, as WTI didn’t manage to close above it. Short-term technical indicators are at neutral levels. New attempts to reach the target interval $69.85-$71.13 are possible in the upcoming days. We remain cautious in the medium-term. WTI not being able to close above $71.13 would be a negative signal. Will MACD be able to continue its upward move?

Gold

Gold pulled back over the last week. However, it is recovering as we type. The daily technical indicators are at neutral levels. The rebound, initiated in mid August 2018, seems to be intact. We define a target interval at $1238-$1244. The high of 28 August 2018 ($1214) and the 50-day moving average ($1217) could be resistance levels in the short-term. The long-term setup remains challenging. We see risks of further decline towards December 2016 low ($1123). Further move towards “zero” is possible…

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD retreated as suggested by our last commentary. We still see as possible a move towards 1.1780$/€, or even 1.1791$/€ (9 July high), in the upcoming weeks. We will seek positive signals indicating further upward moves towards the 200-day moving average (1.1955$/€). RSI is still on a neutral level

Chart of the weekS&P 500 Industrials Relative Index

The S&P 500 Industrials relative index reached a level that has provided support several times during 2012-2017. The underperformance of the Industrials sector, initiated in late 2016, seems to have been interrupted at the end of June 2018. RSI reached a low level…

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