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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 29 August 2018

30 Aug 2018


S&P 500: 

S&P500 pushed higher, reaching a new all-time high in the last week. Technical indicators reached high levels, but remain below extreme readings recorded in the past. The index has a strong momentum. We will look for signals of a possible consolidation and its impact on the technical backdrop. We see the gap of 24th of August 2018 (2876-2885) and the January 2018 high (2873) as important support levels for the index. RSI is reaching an overbought condition…

Euro Stoxx 50:

Daily momentum indicators continue to recover… The Euro Stoxx 50 broke the 50-day moving average. A move towards the 200-day move average still looks possible, as discussed last week. Medium-term setup remains cautious. We continue to see risks of a move to March lows. Since June, the 200-day moving average seems now to be a resistance to the index… A move towards “zero” is still possible…


PSI20 remained close to its 200-moving average. Although the current upward move seems to be weak, we still see a bounce towards its 50-day moving average (5570) as possible in the short-term. Medium-term technical backdrop remains challenging. We see risks of a decline towards the low of May 2018 (5351) or even to the low of February 2018 (5249). The strong drop between 13-15th August, after having failed to break the gap of 5614- 5690, supports our cautious opinion. RSI is not able to break the descending line…


Bovespa moved upwards towards its 200-day moving average over the last week. A break above the 100-day moving average would be a positive signal for the index. Short- and medium-term technical backdrop improved further. The recovery may continue in the near-term with Bovespa pushing higher towards its 200-day moving average (79369). RSI is at neutral level..


WTI moved upwards last week. As we type, WTI is trying to push through its 50-day moving average ($69.22). Short-term technical indicators keep improving. A further move upwards remains possible and we maintain a target interval at $69.85-$71.13. A break above that level could increase our confidence for the medium-term. We remain cautious in the medium-term and we seek positive signs in the WTI evolution. Still neutral readings for RSI… 


Gold continued recovering, moving above $1200 and towards its 50-day moving average in the last week. Although the recovery seems to be weak, we see as possible some further upward move towards the 50-day moving average ($1225) in the upcoming days. The long-term setup remains challenging. We see risks of further decline towards December 2016 low of $1123. RSI broke its descending trendline and remains at a neutral level that can enable gold to recover further…


EUR/USD moved above its 50-day moving average. However it hasn’t reached the targets defined last week. Daily technical indicators continue improving and haven’t reached an overbought condition yet. Although a retracement is possible in the upcoming days, we still see as possible a move towards 1.1780$/€, or even 1.1791$/€ (9 July high). Although the RSI is not overbought yet, some retracement is possible in the upcoming days…

Chart of the week: EURO STOXX Autos & Parts Relative Index

Momentum indicators reached low levels in the weekly chart. The relative index is back to a level that has provided support several times in 2014-2017. A move higher is possible over the coming weeks. In the medium-term, we see risks of a further decline in the relative index.

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