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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 23 August 2018

24 Aug 2018



S&P500 remains close to its January highs. In the near-term, new attempts to break the January highs are possible. Daily technical indicators suggest some loss of momentum. We will look for signs that the index could move again towards its 50-day moving average (2799). MACD shows some signs of weakening…

Euro Stoxx 50:

Euro Stoxx 50 recovered, as expected, moving towards its 50-day moving average over last week. We see a move above 50-day moving average (3433) as possible in the short-term. This would, afterwards, target the 200-day moving average (3488). Deteriorating medium-term technical backdrop and inability of Euro Stoxx to move above 200-day moving average in June and July/August support our cautious attitude in the medium-term.  We see risks of a move towards the March low (3262). A crossing of MACD would boost Euro Stoxx 50 recovery…


PSI20 remained close to the 200-moving average. We see an upward move towards 50-day moving average (5574) as possible in the short-term. Medium-term technical indicators deteriorated. We still see risks of a retracement towards the low of May 2018 (5351) and the low of Feb 2018 (5249). The strong drop between 13-15th August, after having failed to break the gap of 5614- 5690, supports our cautious opinion. RSI has been in a downward trend…


Bovespa reached the targeted retracement level of 75430 and found support near the 50-day moving average. As the short-term technical backdrop has improved, we see as possible an upward move towards 200-day moving average (79296) in the short-term. RSI is at neutral level..


WTI found support at its 200-day moving average and moved upwards towards the 50-day moving average over the last week. We expect WTI to move upwards in the short term and we define a target interval at $69.85- $71.13. A break above that level could increase our confidence for the medium-term. WTI has been trading below 100-day moving average over the last 2 weeks, which is a new pattern not seen since mid-2017. We consider this as a negative sign. Hence, we remain cautious for the upcoming weeks and see risks of WTI moving below its 200-day moving average. Will MACD be able to move towards “zero”?


Gold is slightly below $1200, which we expect to be a resistance in the short-term. Considering the low level of short- and medium-term technical indicators, a stronger recovery is possible, with gold moving towards its 50-day moving average. The long-term setup remains challenging. We see risks of further retracement towards December 2016 low of $1123. 


EUR/USD recovered last week, reaching defined targets at 1.1510$/€ and 1.1546$/€. We see a break above the 50-day moving-average as likely, and we define a short-term target at 1.1780$/€. EUR/USD has already retraced by more than 50% the upward move started in late 2016, and it is currently close to 2015 and 2016 highs. Therefore, a stronger rebound is possible. We define 1.1851$/€ and 1.1928$/€ as the next target levels. We expect MACD to push higher to “zero”.

Bovespa in USD terms

In USD terms, the Bovespa index is close to break its June lows as we type. The index remains below its 100- and 200 day moving averages. The recovery recorded in July met resistance near the 100-day moving average, suggesting that risks remain on the downside for the index

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