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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 21 September 2018

21 Sep 2018



S&P500 reached a new all-time high. The index continues with the pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows. Technical indicators are at high, but not extreme levels. Some pullback is possible in the near-term, given the strong upward move since the beginning of September. We see as possible further attempts to reach new highs. We define a target interval at 2958- 2976. The gap of 20 September may be the first support level. A break below it could trigger a stronger pullback.

EuroStoxx 50: 

Euro Stoxx 50 rebounded and achieved the targeted levels of 3369 and 3391. The short-term technical indicators improved. We see as possible a move towards the 200-day moving average. Medium-term setup remains cautious. We still see risks of a break below 3262 (low of 26 March 2018), and of a move to the target interval of 3151-3191. RSI broke its downward trend line…


PSI20 recovered and achieved our first target level of 5351 (29 May low). It is close to the second one defined at 5405 (15 August low). The oscillators are still at low levels. We see as possible a continuation of the current upward move. We define a target interval at 5447- 5455. We remain cautious in the medium-term. We still see risks of a retracement to the target interval defined at 5148- 5180.

Will MACD manage to move closer to “zero”…?


Bovespa rebounded and moved close to its 200-day moving average over the last week. The index broke the pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows initiated on 3 August 2018. Short-term technical backdrop also improved. A break above the 200-day moving average would target 81792 (August high). We recognise the positive signals. Nevertheless, for now, we remain cautious in the medium-term. RSI remains at a neutral level..


WTI tested the target interval for the third time in September. However, it didn’t manage to close above its upper-bound ($71.13). Technical backdrop is neutral. We see as possible new attempts to break above the upper-bound of the interval $69.85-$71.13. We will seek positive signals that could indicate an upward move towards the July high of $75.27. RSI is still not overbought…


Gold moved slightly higher over the last week. The recovery continues to be weak. Gold is trying to break its 50-day moving average. We maintain the target levels defined at $1221 and $1229. Technical picture remains fragile. Nevertheless,  Gold is still seen as capable of extending its rebound initiated in August. We remain cautious in the medium-term. Technical indicators remain weak. A move above “zero” could enable gold to continue its recovery..


EUR/USD rebounded and achieved our first target defined at 1.1780$/€.  It is close to the second one at 1.1791$/€ (9 July high), as we type. Some consolidation is possible in the near-term. However, given the strong momentum, we still see as possible a continuation of the upward move. Technical backdrop continues favourable. We maintain our target levels defined last week at 1.1851$/€ (14 June high) and 1.1947$/€ (200-day moving average). RSI is still not in overbought..

The S&P500 Financials relative index (daily chart):

has stabilised and recovered recently, on the back of rising 10-year UST yields to above 3%. Short and medium-term technical backdrop is positive. We see as possible the continuation of the recovery of the relative index. MACD has already crossed and now is pushing towards “zero”..

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