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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 19 October 2018

19 Oct 2018



The index has reached our first target defined last week for a rebound (2799), but not the second one (2826). S&P500 has tried to stabilise around its 200-day moving average. Daily momentum indicators remain at a low level. We still see as possible further attemps to extend the current recovery. We remain cautious in the medium-term, given the weaker technical backdrop. We see risks of the S&P500 moving closer to January-May lows. 

Euro Stoxx 50

Euro Stoxx 50 has tried to stabilise over last week. The index remains weak. We remain cautious in the medium-term. Daily momentum indicators remain at a low level. We still see as possible a recovery towards the targets defined last week: 3295, 3325 and 3355. RSI remains at a low level…


The recovery has so far been weak. Daily momentum indicators remain at a low level. We remain cautious in the medium-term. Technical backdrop suggests that a stronger recovery is still possible. We keep the targets defined last week, i.e. 5134-5140 and 5239-5249. MACD has already reached a low level…


Following a strong upward move from the September lows, Bovespa has stabilised close to its 2018’s highs. Daily momentum indicators have already reached a high level. Until now the index has remained above 82345. However, a stronger loss of momentum in the short-term could push Bovespa towards  80804 or 79263. MACD has already reached a high level…


As WTI moves closer to its 200-day moving average, we would look for signals of a stabilisation  that could lead to a rebound. WTI continued to decline over last week. As seen by the evolution of RSI below, this has happened several times already this year. Even if confirmed, we are increasingly concerned with weaker medium-term momentum indicators. We now see risks of a stronger move downwards, with WTI breaking its 200-day moving average.


Gold rose slightly since last week’s Weekly Technical Outlook. It remains below the $1235-$1239 target. Above that interval we would look to $1248. Daily technical momentum indicators continue to rise and have still not reached an overbought condition. Positive technical backdrop is consistent with the idea that gold may continue to push higher in the near-term. RSI shows a positive trendline.


EUR/USD was not able to continue the recovery from the 9 October low. EUR/USD found resistance near its 50-day moving average. With the EUR/USD now back to its 9 October low, we will look for signals of a reversal in momentum. We see contradictory signals. Nevertheless, with long-term momentum indicators still weakening, we see risks of a move towards the August low (1.1301$/€). MACD was unable to cross, which represents a negative signal…


The German stock index DAX has outperformed the Swedish’s OMX since 6 September. Daily momentum indicators have clearly improved, which supports the upward move. Daily momentum indicators have not reached an overbought condition. DAX may continue to outperform the OMX in the near-term.


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