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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 18 December 2018

18 Dec 2018



As suggested in our last commentary, S&P500 fell (slightly) below its February 2018 low (2533). We look for stabilisation signs, preferably below 2500. We define an overshooting level at 2464 (in order to allow for a stronger VIX). RSI close to oversold levels…

Euro Stoxx 50

The index has already retraced 61.8% of the June 2016 - November 2017 upward move. The next target level would be defined at 2917. The downtrend remains intact… supporting a cautious stance. We are still looking for stabilisation signals in the near-term given the strong negative momentum. A break above 3091-3101 could allow a more favourable backdrop over the coming weeks. MACD remains well above its previous low… which is positive in our view…


The index remains weak. PSI20 is trying to find support around its 27 - 28 March 2017 gap (4723 - 4808). Negative momentum remains strong and daily technical indicators remain weak. We see risks of a move towards 4559. MACD is weakening again...


The evolution of daily momentum indicators over the last few months points towards a gradual loss of positive momentum.The pullback seen since our previous commentary could therefore continue over the coming sessions. The first downside target is defined at 82772. We can find the 200-day moving average at 81327. MACD is falling very fast towards “zero”… which could represent a headwind, at least over the short-term.


WTI remains very weak and has already declined below its December low. Next support would be defined at $44.24 - $45.47, which would represent a 61.8% retracement of the February 2016 - October 2018 upward move. Our attention remains on technical signs that would allow a stronger rebound of the WTI. The downward move is still expected to lose negative momentum, allowing WTI to stabilise…WTI will likely be able to rebound if RSI reaches a new oversold condition.


Gold continues its upward move from the November low. The technical backdrop remains favourable. Gold is not far from the $1263 target (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline) defined over the last few weeks. Daily momentum indicators are still not overbought. We are looking for signs that gold will be able to reach the next target level, defined at $1287. RSI has not reach overbought levels yet…


EUR/USD has been broadly stable over the last 2 weeks...Daily momentum indicators still support a move towards 1.1523$/€ in the short-term. Given the favourable technical backdrop, the EUR/USD could even break that level and move closer to 1.1600$/€. We are also seeing signs that DXY is likely to weaken over coming weeks. A move towards “zero” would further support EUR/USD…

Gold vs. Copper

Technical backdrop remains favourable. Gold is still seen outperforming copper over the coming weeks. MACD may still reach higher levels...


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