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PATRIS Weekly Technical Outlook - 16 November 2018

16 Nov 2018



The index is trying to stabilise above the important 31 October opening gap. This could support a positive bias in the short-term. Daily technical momentum indicators continue to recover and may allow the index to move closer to the 200-day moving average (2761). We remain cautious over the medium-term. We still see risks that the S&P500 could fall below the February-May lows. RSI still shows an uptrend.

Euro Stoxx 50

Euro Stoxx 50 has not been able to show further attempts to move towards the 50-day moving average (3277). Technical backdrop remains weak. Momentum has weakened again last week. A move towards the October low (3091) is a clear risk. RSI was not able to move closer to its downward trend…


Medium-term outlook remains cautious. We still see risks of the index moving lower. The index remains very weak and went back to its October low. Focus in the short-term remains on the ability of the PSI20 to stabilise. We notice that PSI20 has been declining at a slower pace recently. A stabilisation and recovery in the near-term remains possible, in spite of our concerns with the medium-term. A break of the downtrend is needed to support an upward move in the near-term.


The index was broadly flat last week. We continue to see risks that weaker daily technical momentum indicators could push lower the Bovespa in the near-term. Focus should be on 83724. A move below 82000 could be a warning signal for the uptrend seen since the June low. Weaker MACD could be a headwind to Bovespa in the near-term.


WTI continued to fall despite having already reached oversold levels last week. WTI is down by more than 25%, as we type, since the October high. Daily technical momentum indicators have reached historically low levels (we highlight the RSI in the chart). WTI has now reached December 2017 levels. We would define $59.98 as a target for a rebound in the near-term. We remain cautious for the medium-term. A 50% retracement of the February 2016 - March 2018 increase would target $51.47. 


The decline recorded since the beginning of the month has been stronger than expected. Following the recent rebound, gold is again trading above its 50-day moving average ($1211). Technical picture remains favourable. We still see as possible a move to $1263 (i.e. 50% retracement of the January-August decline). A move closer to “zero” would support gold prices over the next few weeks.


EUR/USD has been very close to 1.1187$/€, the level suggested last week, before rebounding over the recent days. EUR/USD may move towards 1.1516$/€ - 1.1534$/€, in the near-term (or even 1.1586$/€). Recent rise in MACD could allow a stronger rebound by the EUR/USD. Medium-term outlook remains cautious, given risks that DXY may still move higher…

iShares MSCI EM vs. SPDR S&P500 ETF

Relative index has stabilised over recent months…Daily momentum indicators have recovered. This could support some outperformance from Emerging Markets relative to the S&P500 in the near-term.


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