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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 14 September 2018

14 Sep 2018


S&P 500:

S&P500 confirmed the support of the 7 August high (2863). The index maintains the pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows. Given the strong momentum that S&P500 continues to show, we see as possible a break above the 29 August high (2917). MACD: A failure to cross could push S&P500 to a correction…

Euro Stoxx 600: 

After moving in the direction of the 26 March low (3262), Euro Stoxx 50 recovered. We see a continuation of recent upward move as possible in the near-term. We define target levels at 3369, and then at 3391. Medium-term setup remains cautious. We see risks of a break below 3262 (low of 26 March 2018), which could, in turn, push the index towards the target interval of 3151-3191. RSI is recovering and still remains in a neutral level..


PSI20 tested the lows of November 2017 (5209) and February 2018 (5249). It is currently in an important support area, coinciding with the gap of 18 September 2017. Short-term technical indicators are at low levels. This could enable the index to recover in the upcoming days. We see as possible a break above the 29 May low (5351) and a move close to the 15 August low (5405). We remain cautious in the medium-term. We see risks of a retracement to the target interval defined at 5148- 5180. MACD is already on a quite low level, which could enable PSI20 to recover…


Bovespa tested its 50-day moving average and pulled back after not being able to break above it. The index didn’t manage to break the pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows initiated on 3 August 2018. Technical backdrop remains weak. We continue to see risks of a move towards 70000Focus should be on the 19 September MPC meeting, given that BRL remains weak.. MACD continues deteriorating… 


WTI tested the target interval again and wasn’t able to break above it in the last week. We see as possible new attempts to reach again the target interval $69.85-$71.13 in the upcoming days. A break above it could enable WTI to head towards the July high of $75.27. We remain cautious in the medium-term. MACD didn’t cross and it may continue to recover…


Gold continued its recovery over the last week and tested $1214 (28 August high), and the 50-day moving average ($1211), both defined in our last comment as short-term resistance levels. The daily technical indicators are not overbought yet. The rebound, initiated in mid August 2018, may still continue. We define new target levels at $1221 and $1229. Medium-term backdrop remains cautious given that technical indicators are at very low levels. RSI broke its descending trendline…


EUR/USD moved upwards towards the targets defined in previous comments and close to the high of 28 August (1.1733$/€). Technical daily indicators are positive and haven’t reached an overbought condition yet. We still see as possible a move towards our targets of 1.1780$/€ and 1.1791$/€ (9 July high). We even see risks of a further upside move to 1.1851$/€ (14 June high) and 1.1949$/€ (200-day moving average). MACD is still far from reaching an “overbought” condition..

Chart of the week: Stoxx 600 Banks Relative Index 

The Stoxx 600 Banks relative index has been underperforming in recent months. The technical indicators indicate a possible recovery in the short-term. We remain cautious in the medium-term, however, given the strong downward trend. MACD can push towards “zero” and enable the Banks relative index to recover..

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