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PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 14 September 2018

14 Sep 2018

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S&P 500:

S&P500 confirmed the support of the 7 August high (2863). The index maintains the pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows. Given the strong momentum that S&P500 continues to show, we see as possible a break above the 29 August high (2917). MACD: A failure to cross could push S&P500 to a correction…

Euro Stoxx 600: 

After moving in the direction of the 26 March low (3262), Euro Stoxx 50 recovered. We see a continuation of recent upward move as possible in the near-term. We define target levels at 3369, and then at 3391. Medium-term setup remains cautious. We see risks of a break below 3262 (low of 26 March 2018), which could, in turn, push the index towards the target interval of 3151-3191. RSI is recovering and still remains in a neutral level..

PSI20:

PSI20 tested the lows of November 2017 (5209) and February 2018 (5249). It is currently in an important support area, coinciding with the gap of 18 September 2017. Short-term technical indicators are at low levels. This could enable the index to recover in the upcoming days. We see as possible a break above the 29 May low (5351) and a move close to the 15 August low (5405). We remain cautious in the medium-term. We see risks of a retracement to the target interval defined at 5148- 5180. MACD is already on a quite low level, which could enable PSI20 to recover…

BOVESPA:

Bovespa tested its 50-day moving average and pulled back after not being able to break above it. The index didn’t manage to break the pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows initiated on 3 August 2018. Technical backdrop remains weak. We continue to see risks of a move towards 70000Focus should be on the 19 September MPC meeting, given that BRL remains weak.. MACD continues deteriorating… 

WTI: 

WTI tested the target interval again and wasn’t able to break above it in the last week. We see as possible new attempts to reach again the target interval $69.85-$71.13 in the upcoming days. A break above it could enable WTI to head towards the July high of $75.27. We remain cautious in the medium-term. MACD didn’t cross and it may continue to recover…

Gold: 

Gold continued its recovery over the last week and tested $1214 (28 August high), and the 50-day moving average ($1211), both defined in our last comment as short-term resistance levels. The daily technical indicators are not overbought yet. The rebound, initiated in mid August 2018, may still continue. We define new target levels at $1221 and $1229. Medium-term backdrop remains cautious given that technical indicators are at very low levels. RSI broke its descending trendline…

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD moved upwards towards the targets defined in previous comments and close to the high of 28 August (1.1733$/€). Technical daily indicators are positive and haven’t reached an overbought condition yet. We still see as possible a move towards our targets of 1.1780$/€ and 1.1791$/€ (9 July high). We even see risks of a further upside move to 1.1851$/€ (14 June high) and 1.1949$/€ (200-day moving average). MACD is still far from reaching an “overbought” condition..

Chart of the week: Stoxx 600 Banks Relative Index 

The Stoxx 600 Banks relative index has been underperforming in recent months. The technical indicators indicate a possible recovery in the short-term. We remain cautious in the medium-term, however, given the strong downward trend. MACD can push towards “zero” and enable the Banks relative index to recover..

For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

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