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PATRIS Weekly Technical Outlook - 01 November 2018

2 Nov 2018

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S&P500

The index has moved closer to the January-May lows. Recent sessions have showed a strong rebound. A rebound to the 200-day moving average (2765) would allow the S&P500 to recover around 50% of the fall recorded since the 21 September high. Daily technical momentum indicators are recovering from low levels, which supports the current rebound. Medium-term outlook remains cautious, as we still see risks of a break below the January-May lows. Nevertheless, we recognise that technical indicators have already recorded a strong correction…The very low level may represent a headwind to S&P500, despite the current rebound…

Euro Stoxx 50

The index has almost retraced 61.8% of the upward move seen between 2016 and November 2017. Near-term targets for the current rebound defined at 3233 and 3277. Medium-term outlook remains cautious. A move higher still seems to be possible…

PSI20

PSI20 retraced more than 50% of the June 2016 - May 2018. As we type, the index is trying to stabilise. Despite the strong decline posted by the index over the last few months, we still have some concerns given long-term momentum indicators. In the near-term, focus should be on the current rebound. First target defined at 5108. Above this level, the index could try to move closer to its 50-day moving average (5225). A move higher still seems to be possible…

Bovespa

The index moved to its February highs. Daily momentum indicators remain constructive, which supports the current uptrend. Daily momentum indicators are not overbought. Bovespa may show further attempts to extend is upward move. RSI remains in an uptrend…

WTI

WTI is trading below its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2017. Daily technical indicators have already reached low levels, increasing the chance of a short-term rebound. Weekly momentum indicators remain the key concern. They are still weakening and could drag WTI to extend the current downward trend. Target defined at $62.58-$63.65.

Gold

Gold broke above $1235-$1239 but did not reach $1248. Daily technical momentum indicators are not overbought. Recent pullback may allow gold to show new attempts to extend the up-move seen since the August low. A 50% retracement of the January-August decline would target $1263. For now, we remain cautious for the medium-term.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD dropped to the August low (1.1301$/€). Short- and medium-term momentum indicators could support a positive reaction from current levels. Targets defined at 1.1498$/€ and 1.1558$/€. Will RSI hold the uptrend?

MSCI EM vs. DM

Emerging markets have recently showed signs of stabilisation vs. developed markets. Daily momentum indicators continue to recover. Favourable backdrop could support a period of outperformance from emerging markets, after the strong underperformance seen since the end of March.

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Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.

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Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.

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