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Patris Monthly Newsletter - December 2018

31 Dec 2018

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Overview:

  • In Portugal, the General Government balance was marginally positive in the year ending in 3Q18, comparing with a net borrowing of 1.0% of GDP in the previous quarter;
  • The Bank of Portugal now expects the economy to grow 2.1% in 2018 (vs. 2.3% in October) and to keep growing at an annual rate of 1.8% in 2019 (vs. 1.9% in June);
  • An aging US economic cycle, slower growth in the global economy, higher equity market volatility, trade wars, Brexit and higher European political risk were the main drivers of this year's poor performance in equity markets;
  • As widely expected, the ECB confirmed on 13 December that net asset purchases will cease at the end of 2018. In the US, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by another 25bps on 19 December, as widely anticipated, to 2.25%-2.50%; 
  • Italian budget discipline, BREXIT, slowing economic growth, potential tariffs in Europe, US/China trade war and the end of the CSPP bid remain all key risks for credit markets over the coming weeks. However, December has already showed a strong widening in spreads.

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For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

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