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Patris Daily - 7 August 2018

7 Aug 2018

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GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

Europe: with the exception of Portugal (+0.31%) and UK (+0.06%), major European stock indices edged lower on Monday amid concerns of further trade tensions escalation. Stoxx 600 finished 0.13% lower, with its six sectors closing positive. Oil & Gas (+0.50%) outperformed, on the back of crude gains.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: 10-year EGB yields dropped across the board on the session, with Greece outperforming (-8.8bps to 3.928%). 

Portugal: PSI20 gained 0.31% on the first session of the week, with its 10 titles closing positive. Altri (+2.0%) and Navigator (+1.9%) outperformed, while Ibersol (-2.5%) was hit the hardest.

FX & Commodities: oil prices traded lower, with the first future of Brent up by 0.74% (+0.56% as we type). Gold finished the day down by 0.60% (+0.24% as we type). EUR/USD closed down by 0.12% (+0.14% as we type).

The Turkish lira tumbled further, after President Trump administration said it was reviewing Turkey’s duty-free access to the US market.

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 finished the day higher (+0.35%). Consumer Discretionary (+0.67%) and Technology (+0.59%) outperformed, while Real Estate (-0.09%) and Telecommunications (-0.24%) were the only sectors that closed negative. 10-year UST yields were little changed at 2.944%.

The first round of renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran took effect as the Trump administration expects them to further cripple the Iranian economy. The snapback sanctions target Iranian purchases of US dollars, metals trading, coal, industrial-related software and its auto sector.

Latin America: economic activity index in Chile contracted 0.1% m/m in June, below expectations of +0.2%. In annual terms, the Chilean economy expanded 4.9% in June. In Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics released seasonally adjusted gross fixed investments that rose 0.9% m/m in May, after a decline of 1.2% registered in April.

Asia: with the exception of TAIEX -0.37% and S&P/ASX200 -0.30%, that registered slight losses, stocks traded with a mixed tone overnight: TOPIX +0.76%, HANG SENG +1.49% as we type, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE +2.74% (led by industrial sector, and with the strong contribution of Petrochina +4.47%), HSCEI +1.60% as we type, KOSPI +0.60%.

OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA:

Germany: June Factory Orders

Price, seasonally and calendar adjusted new orders in the manufacturing sector declined 4.0% m/m in June (vs. consensus 0.5% m/m). The figure in the previous month stood at +2.6% m/m.  Factory order fell 0.8% y/y in June, after an increase of 4.4% y/y registered in May.

Domestic orders fell 2.8% m/m, while foreign orders slumped 4.7% m/m. New orders from the euro area were down by 2.7% m/m, while new orders from other countries fell 5.9% m/m.

Eurozone: August Sentix Investor Confidence

The Sentix survey investor confidence’s headline rose 2.6 points in August to 14.7. Current situation (+0.5 points to 37.3) and expectations (+4.2 points to -5.8) sub-indexes recorded gains on the month. This was the first sentiment indicator released for August in the euro area.

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Linde: the company is considering the sale of additional assets in the US in an attempt to salvage its merger with Praxair (Bloomberg)

Elior: Moody´s changed the outlook on Ba2 rating, from stable to negative (Bloomberg)

Snam: Snam and API group sign a pact for 200 natural gas fueling stations (Bloomberg)

Carrefour: the long-term strategic alliance with Tesco will become operational in October (Bloomberg)

Prysmian: the company will provide cable solutions for solar park in Argentina (Bloomberg)

Fraport: the company signed an agreement to sell 30% stake in Flughafen Hannover-Langenhagen for €109.2mn (Bloomberg)

Spain: Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he sees the Spanish economy growth close to 2.7% at the end of the year (Bloomberg)

Aena: the company backs the strategic plan of the previous chairman (Bloomberg)

Daimler: the German car-maker is planning to manufacture battery-powered Smart cars in China with a local partner (Bloomberg)

Europe: in a statement, EU said it was determined to protect economic operators engaged in legitimate business with Iran, in accordance with EU law and with UN Security Council resolution 2231 (Bloomberg)

Italy: Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio said that the government will not allow the EU rules block the populists´ program (Bloomberg)

Saipem: CEO Stefano Cao said the company started a detailed analysis of options for the drilling unit, which may include finding an industrial or financial partner (Bloomberg)

UniCredit: the bank filed a complaint against Caius Capital and Caius funds, seeking about €90m in damages as result of Caius actions over CASHES issue (Bloomberg)

Total: the company´s oil fields in the North Sea are halted, due to the third round of workers´ strike (Bloomberg)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY: today we will get the JOLTS job openings and the consumer credit in the US for June. In Germany June´s industrial production, trade balance and exports will be released. We will also get the trade balance in France, for the same month.

The Central Bank of Argentina releases Monetary Policy statement, while in Brazil the COPOM will publish the minutes from the last meeting, held on 1st of August, when the MPC decided to leave the SELIC policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, in a unanimous decision and in line with market consensus. In Colombia Iván Duque will be sworn in as the president today.

Emerson Electric, Discovery, Walt Disney publish their quarterly results in the US, while Uniper, Commerzbank, Beiersdorf, Pirelli, Meggitt, Standard Life Aberdeen, Intertek Group, InterContinental Hotels Group unveil their numbers in Europe.

For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

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The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

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