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Patris Daily - 28 September 2018 part 1

28 Sep 2018

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GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

Europe: With the exception of Italy (+0.62%), the major European stock indices closed positive. STOXX600 closed 0.35% higher. 14 out of 19 setors registered gains. Telecommunications (+0.91%) and Personal & Housing Goods (+0.83%) outperformed. Basic Resources (-0.30%) and Chemicals (-0.20%) were hit the hardest.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: Mixed session for 10-year EGB yields. Italy was pressured the most, closing 2.8bps higher at 2.881% amid concerns on the 2019 budget law.

The Italian government has agreed to set a deficit target for next year at 2.4% of GDP, the leaders of the two ruling parties said. Meanwhile, according to comments from an EU official, to see a marginal improvement in Italy’s structural budget balance, the headline deficit should have been around 1.6% of GDP. He added that EU was left with the impression that Finance Minister Giovanni Tria was pushing for a deficit of 1.9% of GDP. 2.4% of GDP deficit target is too high and means that Italy is in breach of its obligation to improve structural budget balance and reduce debt. The EU Commission is expected to discuss this morning how to react to news coming from Italy.

Italian government sold €2bn in October 2023 bonds (with an average yield of 2.03% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.42x) and €2bn in December 2028 bonds (with an average yield of 2.90% and a bid-to-cover ratio at 1.44x).

Portugal: PSI20 increased 0.64%. Amongst the 13 members that closed positive, Navigator (+2.7%) and Mota-Engil (+2.3%) outperformed. Pharol (-0.56%) and Altri (-0.36%) were hit the hardest.

FX & Commodities: The first future of Brent finished the day up by 0.47% (+0.04% as we type). Gold closed 0.97% lower (-0.09% as we type). EUR/USD finished the day -0.83% lower (-0.15% as we type).

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 increased 0.28% (Nasdaq Composite +0.65%). Materials (-0.98%), Financials (-0.34%) and Consumer Staples (-0.20%) closed negative. The remaining 8 sectors registered gains, with Utilities (+1.18%) being the main outperformer. 10-year UST yields finished the day little changed at 3.053%.

Latin America: Argentina and the IMF have agreed to increase the amount of standby loan from $50bn to $57bn, and to introduce a currency band for the Argentine Peso, while available resources will be frontloaded over the next 15 months. The central bank will abandon the current inflation targeting and will set up nominal targets for monetary-base growth. FX policy will also have a new rules-based framework. Moody´s said Argentina prioritises financial stability to growth. The rating agency expects Argentine economy to contract 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. In Brazil, the 3Q18 Quarterly Inflation Report reinforced the idea that the COPOM is ready to gradually remove some of the current monetary policy accommodation if needed to guarantee that inflation forecasts are consistent with targets over the horizon for monetary policy.

Asia: Stocks traded with a mixed tone overnight: TOPIX +0.95%, HANG SENG -0.03% as we type, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE +1.06%, HSCEI +0.55% as we type, TAIEX -0.25%, KOSPI -0.52% and S&P/ASX200 +0.43%.

In China, the State Council announced more benefits for foreign investment in China, and mandated the overall import tariff to be lowered (in order to reduce costs for corporates and consumers).

For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

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