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Patris Daily - 12 September 2018 - PART 1

12 Sep 2018



Europe: Spain (+0.14%) and France (+0.27%) recorded gains, outperforming major European stock indices. STOXX600 closed little changed (-0.05%), with 8 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Oil & Gas (+1.39%) outperformed, on the back of the gains posted by oil prices.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: 10-year EGB yields increased yesterday across the region, with the exception of Greece (-11.1bps to 4.038%). Portugal closed 1.6bps higher at 1.881%.

We updated today the voting intentions in Italy with the most recent polls conducted in September. Average support to 5 Stelle stood at 28.1% in September, below the March elections results of 32.7%, while 32.4% of voters would choose Lega, above the 17.4% obtained in March elections.

Portugal: The PSI20 index lost 0.18% on Tuesday. 10 out of its 18 members registered gains, with Corticeira Amorim (+1.6%) and EDPR (+1.0%) outperforming. Pharol (-4.7%) underperformed.

FX & Commodities: The first future of Brent finished the day up by 2.18% (+0.22% as we type). Gold closed 0.23% higher (-0.38% as we type). EUR/USD finished the day up by 0.10% (-0.19% as we type).

A decisive break of 2013 high by 10-year UST real yields remains something to watch carefully over coming months.

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 went up by 0.37%. 6 out of 11 groups ended the day with gains. Telecoms (+1.08%) and Energy (+0.98%) outperformed, while Consumer Staples (-0.39%) and Utilities (-0.35%) were hit the hardest. 10-year UST rose by 4.4bps to 2.976%. The spread between 2-year and 10-year UST yield rose by 1.1bps to 23bps.

Yesterday’s news brought some further reports adding to the idea of divergence between the US and rest of the world economy. The strength recorded by the ISM manufacturing index may continue to support 10-year UST yields.

Latin America: In Mexico, Finance Minister José Antonio González Anaya said in an interview that the country is open to moving ahead with a bilateral trade pact with the US if Canada cannot reach a deal on NAFTA with the Trump administration. On the data front, industrial production rose by 0.2%m/m sa in July (vs. consensus -0.2%m/m), driven by the utilities and construction sectors. Mining production (-1.1%m/m) recorded the third monthly consecutive decline. The industrial sector continues to underperform due to mining activity. In Colombia, central bank co-director Geraldo Hernandez said that the external situation is very volatile, which creates risks of pass-through affecting inflation. He sees monetary policy as slightly expansionary. Furthermore, he considered that there is no doubt that the Colombian economy will grow faster than 3% next year, and that the growth rate should be close to 4%. In Chile, according to the central bank survey yesterday published, analysts expect the MPC to hike the policy rate by 25bps to 2.75% in December (unchanged vs. the previous survey). However, analyst now expects the policy rate to reach 3.25% in 12 months (vs. 3.00% in the previous survey) and 3.75% in 24 months (vs. 3.50% in the previous survey).

In Brazil, CNI-Ibope released a new 2018 presidential election poll. Jair Bolsonaro leads with 26% of the voting intentions (vs. 22% a week ago). Ciro Gomes comes second (11% vs. 12% in the last poll), while Marina Silva’s voting intentions fell to 9%, from 12% a week ago. She is now tied with Geraldo Alckmin, while Fernando Haddad has 8% of voting intentions (vs. 6% last week). Jair Bolsonaro continues to lead the rejection list (41% vs. 44% last week), followed by Marina Silva (from 26% to 24%), Fernando Haddad (23%, unchanged vs. last week), Geraldo Alckmin (from 22% to 19%) and Ciro Gomes (17%, unchanged vs. last week). Jair Bolsonaro improved his performance in run-off simulations vs. Geraldo Alckmin (37% vs. 38%), Ciro Gomes (37% vs.40%), Marina Silva (38% vs. 38%) and Fernando Haddad (40% vs. 36%), giving the survey’s margin of error of +/- 2pp.

In Argentina, the central bank MPC decided yesterday to leave the 7-day LELIQ policy rate unchanged at 60.0%. The MPC reiterated the need to keep the current restrictive monetary policy bias until at least the end of the year. The MPC will continue monitoring the evolution of inflation over coming months and, if the need arises, to implement corrective measures to meet the defined targets.

Asia: Asian markets mostly traded with a negative tone, with news flow remaining thin: TOPIX -0.45%, HANG SENG -0.54% as we type, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -0.33%, HSCEI -1.19%, TAIEX -0.28%, KOSPI -0.01% and S&P/ASX200 -0.06%. The CFETS USD/CNY mid-rate is gradually moving towards its August high.

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