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Patris Daily - 11 July 2018 part 1

11 Jul 2018



Europe: with the exception of Spain, that closed 0.38% lower, the main European stock indices edged higher on Tuesday. STOXX600 rose 0.43%, with 14 of its main 19 sectors closing with gains. Oil & Gas (+1.37%) outperformed, as oil prices rose for a second consecutive day.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: mixed session for the EGB 10-year yields. In the UK, 10-year wields rose 4.9 bps to 1.3%, as the market remain focused on recent developments regarding the BREXIT process.

ECB Governing Council member and Italy’s central bank governor Ignazio Visco said yesterday that the Italian economy faces risks from US tariff decisions and tension in the European Union. He acknowledged a slowdown in the pace of GDP growth but sees the economy growing above 1% given favorable economic conditions. He considered that the maintenance of orderly conditions in the government bond market remains key. According to Ignazio Visco, the relaunch of investments and pro-growth policies are as important as a cautious management of public finances in terms of debt reduction. Finally, he highlighted the importance of a cautious monetary policy by the ECB in order to avoid sudden spikes in long-term bond yields and financial markets volatility.

Portugal: PSI20 closed 0.34% higher on the second session of the week. 11 of the 18 members of the Portuguese index finished the day higher, with outperformance by Altri (+2.8%), Corticeira Amorim (+1.8%) and Mota-Engil (+1.0%).

FX & Commodities: oil prices traded higher, with the first future of Brent up by 1.01% (-0.79% as we type). Gold lost 0.17% during the session (-0.22% as we type). EUR/USD finished the day little changed, -0.06% (-0.06% as we type).

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 rose by 0.35%, with 10 of its main 11 sectors closing positive on the day. Consumer Staples (+1.26%) and Telecom Services (+1.13%) registered the strongest gains, while Financials (-0.37%) finished the day in the red. 10-year UST yields increased 0.6bps to 2.851% (2.837%, as we type).

Latin America: In Chile, the central bank published yesterday its latest survey. Analysts now expect the MPC to hike the policy rate by 25bps in December 2018 to 2.75% (vs. 2.50% in the previous survey). Analysts see the rate reaching 3.00% in 12 months and 3.50% in 24 months. Regarding inflation, analysts expect CPI y/y change to reach 3.00% in 12 months (vs. 2.90% in the previous survey), while the 24-month expectation was kept unchanged at 3.00%.

In Brazil, the Workers’ Party continues unabated in its push to get former President Lula out of jail.

In Argentina, the MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 40% and intends to maintain a restrictive monetary policy until inflation expectations align with the target for 2019. The MPC also announced that it will monitor more closely monetary aggregates until inflation returns to single digits. MPC meetings will now take place once a month. Finally, the MPC recognised upside risks to the inflation outlook, reflecting potential FX pass-through effects.

Asia: equity indices traded in the red, as investors see US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn in Chinese goods as representing a potential escalation of trade tensions between the two countries: TOPIX -0.83%, HANG SENG -1.60% as we type, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -1.76%, HSCEI -1.92% as we type, TAIEX -0.74%, KOSPI -0.59% and S&P/ASX200 -0.68%.

The Trump administration pushed ahead with plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn in Chinese goods by releasing a list of targeted products, including networking equipment, computer components and furniture. China’s Commerce Ministry described the US move as totally unacceptable and said that the country will be forced to retaliate. The 10% tariffs could take effect after public consultations end on 30 August, according to a statement from the US Trade Representative’s office.