banner

Ticker

* Cotações com atraso superior a 15 minutos via Bats CHI-X Europe e NASDAQ Basic

PATRIS Daily - 10 September 2018 - Part 1

10 Sep 2018

noticias/Diario-Fincor.jpg

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

Europe: Excluding France (+0.16%) and Germany (+0.04%), the main European stock indices fell on the last session of the week.

Stoxx 600 closed 0.08% higher, with its 11 sectors registering gains. Telecommunications (+1.01%) and Health care (+0.75%) outperformed. Basic Resources (-1.03%) and Banks (-0.93%) were the biggest losers.

With exception of the Italian FTSE MIB index (+0.88%), all the main European indices suffered losses over the week.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: With exception of Italy (-2.4bps to 3.027%) and Greece (-11.7bps to 4.242%), the EGB yields increased across the board, following UST 10-year yields (+6.6bps to 2.939%). The yield on 10-year Bund closed 3.3bps higher at 0.385%.

Speaking at the end of the Eurogroup meeting, Mario Centeno said that the economic outlook for the region continues to be positive. He stressed that Portugal’s public debt must continue to be reduced. Meanwhile, ECB Executive Council member Benoît Coeuré recognised that there are mounting risks surrounding the euro area. ESM’s Klaus Regling said that there are no short- or medium-term concerns about Portugal.

The Portuguese Treasury and Debt Management Agency announced bond auctions on 12 September 2018 (OT 4.95% with maturity on 25 October 2023 and OT 2.125% with maturity on 17 October 2028), with the indicative global range amount for the auctions of €750mn to €1000mn.

Portugal: PSI20 lost 0.55% on Friday. F.Ramada (+2.1%), CTT (+1.0%), EDPR (+0.8%), Altri (+0.3%) and NOS (+0.1%) were the only members closing with gains. BCP (-2.7%) and Mota-Engil (-1.6%) were hit the hardest.

FX & Commodities: The first future of Brent finished the day up by 0.43% (+0.85% as we type). Gold closed 0.25% lower (-0.32% as we type). EUR/USD finished the day with a loss of 0.60% (-0.16% as we type).

Chinese officials and executives of ExxonMobil discussed a $10bn investment by the U.S.-based firm in the southern province of Guangdong, China.

EM Turmoil could be a headwind for oil prices

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 fell by 0.22% on Friday. Health care (+0.15%) closed positive, while the remaining main 10 sectors in the index suffered losses. Real Estate (-1.24%) and Utilities (-1.20%) were hit the hardest. 10-year UST yields rose by 6.7bps to 2.941%.

Volatility on the US Treasuries remains low. Meanwhile, 2-year UST yields achieved the highest level since early 2008 on Friday.

The US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet has decreased by 4.8pp of GDP since October 2014.

Latin America: in Chile, CPI inflation slowed down from +0.4% m/m in July to +0.2% m/m in August, in line with consensus. Excluding food and energy, the prices were flat over the month, vs. the market expectation of an increase of +0.1% m/m. When compared to August 2017, CPI inflation rose +2.6% y/y in August, below the market expectation of +2.7% y/y. The trade balance plunged from a surplus of $375mn in July, to a deficit of $302mn in August. Exports fell 1.0% y/y to $6.2bn, while imports rose 18.2% y/y to $6.5bn over the last month. It’s the first time that Chile posted a trade deficit since August 2016.

In Mexico, CPI inflation printed at +0.58% m/m in August, slightly above the market expectations of +0.52% m/m. Core CPI stood at +0.25% m/m, below July reading of +0.29% m/m and in line with consensus. In annual terms, CPI rose +4.90% y/y, above the market expectations of +4.85% y/y.

In Argentina, central bank president called on central banks in developed world to invest in EM sovereign debt as part of their reserves.

In Colombia, the Finance Minister said that the government seeks ways to fill the 2019 budget gap, with alternatives including lower spending, fight against tax evasion and tax revenue increase. He sees current account deficit below 3.2% in 2018 helped by higher oil prices and increase of FDI and exports. He added that long-term growth rate fell to 3.5%, which is one of Colombia’s biggest problems.

Asia: Asian equities traded with a mixed tone: TOPIX +0.20%, HANG SENG -1.65% as we type, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE -1.21%, HSCEI -0.64% as we type, TAIWAN -1.12%, KOSPI +0.31%, and S&P/ASX200 -0.03%.

In China, the trade balance stood at $27.91bn in August (vs. consensus $31.00bn), reflecting a 9.8%y/y increase in exports (vs. consensus +10.0%y/y), while imports rose by +20.0%y/y (vs. consensus +17.7%y/y). Meanwhile, CPI inflation reached 2.3%y/y in August (vs. consensus +2.1%y/y), after +2.1%y/y the month before. Annual food inflation accelerated to +1.7%y/y, from +0.5%y/y in July. Annual non-food inflation reached +2.5%y/y in August (vs. +2.4%y/y in July). Core CPI inflation reached +2.0%y/y, following +1.9%y/y in July. PPI inflation slowed to 4.1%y/y in August from +4.6%y/y in July (vs. consensus +4.0%y/y).

For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.

PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA or another company of the Patris Group or its respective shareholders, management, and / or employees may carry out personal transactions on the securities referred to in this report, at any time and without prior notice.

Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.

Patris is subject to high internal standards of behavior associated with the capital market, prepared on the basis of the applicable legislation of the Portuguese State and the European Union, which include rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest and barriers to the disclosure of information.

Investors should bear in mind that the rate of return on the securities identified in this report - if any reference is made to those returns - may vary and the price of such securities may rise or fall. Investors should thus be aware that they may receive less than initially invested. While this report may refer to the historical performance of securities, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In addition, market conditions, applicable laws and other factors that have an effect on performance are all likely to change, with the consequent change in the information contained in this report. Patris or any other company of the Patris Group does not accept, to the extent permitted by applicable law, any liability, whether direct or indirect, resulting from losses that may arise due to the use of the information contained in this report.

Patris's activity is overseen by the Bank of Portugal and the Securities Market Commission.

Voltar