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Patris Daily - 10 July 2018 part 2

10 Jul 2018

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OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA:

Eurozone: July Sentix Investor Confidence

The Sentix survey investor confidence’s headline rose 2.8 points in July to 12.1. This reading is still one lowest print since October 2016, although consistent with a slight improvement in IHS Markit PMI Composite for the region. Current situation (+2.3 points to 36.8) and expectations (+3.3 points to -10.0) sub-indexes recorded gains on the month. This was the first sentiment indicator released for July in the euro area.

Germany: May Trade Balance

Trade balance of goods, seasonally adjusted, increased from €19.0bn in April to €20.3bn in May. Nominal exports of goods increased by 1.8% m/m in May (vs. consensus +0.7% m/m), while nominal imports rose by +0.7% m/m (vs. consensus -0.5% m/m). The April/May average for exports is 0.7% above 1Q18 in nominal terms, while the equivalent figure for imports is +2.2%.

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Navigator: The group has through its subsidiary Portucel Moçambique signed a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Mozambique on the relaunching of the investment project in the country that will be developed in two stages. In the first phase of the project the forestry base will be planted, in order to guarantee the supply of the wood chip mill, which is yet to be built. The first stage includes investments estimated at $260mn (o.w. $120mn have already been invested) (Navigator´s filling on CMVM)

EDP: The Company´s distribution unit plans to invest €799mn on the electricity network through 2021 (Bloomberg)

Siemens Gamesa: The Company will supply 92 turbines to 10 Spanish windfarms in Guadalajara, Lugo, Malaga, Zaragoza, Huesca, Coruña and Cadiz (Bloomberg)

CaixaBank: According to the regulatory filing, the Spanish bank has acquired shares representing 0.236% of the capital of BPI between 3- 6 July at an average price of €1.45 per share, and consequently holds 94.5% of the Portuguese lender.

Spain: The Economy Ministry is studying the possibility of extending the deadline to sell the stake in Bankia (Bloomberg)

BBVA: The bank completed the sale of its 68% stake in BBVA Chile to ScotiaBank (Bloomberg)

Sabadell: The IT issue at TSB has strained its relationship with owner Sabadell such that the bank’s leadership is considering whether it has a future as part of the group (Bloomberg)

Air France- KLM: According to the company´s statement, June passenger load factor rose 1.5 percentage points to 88.8%, while the passenger traffic rose 3.5% in the same month (Bloomberg)

Veolia: The city of Bordeaux appointed the Company to handle its wastewater treatment and rainwater management services. The agreement is said to last seven years, from January 2019 and includes investment of €37mn. The contract is worth €352mn (Bloomberg)

Siemens: Siemens and Alstom didn’t make early concessions in merger probe to the European Commission by the Friday deadline (Bloomberg)

Total: The Company is set to plan the sale of a third of its stake in Laggan Tormore gas field along with other oil and gas assets in Britain’s North Sea that could fetch $1.5bn (Bloomberg)

Italy: The European Parliament President and Forza Italia deputy head Antonio Tajani said that he asked Silvio Berlusconi to head the party’s lists in the election next year for the European Parliament (Bloomberg)

Eni: The Company stated that it had made a second light-oil discovery in the B1-X exploration prospect in the Egyptian Western Desert (Bloomberg)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY: In Argentina, in its regular bi-monthly MPC meeting, the central bank should hold the policy rate at 40%, reflecting the challenging inflation environment, as the MPC aligns the inflation trajectory and inflation expectations with the 17% target for 2019. The central bank may introduce changes to its monetary policy framework

Regarding the Eurozone, we will get May industrial production for Italy and France, as well as the German ZEW indexes for July, while in Portugal INE releases the trade statistics for May and Bank of Portugal discloses data on loans to households and non-financial corporations for the same month.

In the UK, ONS begins the publication of monthly GDP, with the release of readings for April and May (which could add further weight to a potential rate hike by the BoE in August). Market participants will continue to digest the news on the Cabinet reshuffle. In Chile, we will see the release of the monthly survey of economists.

We will have EGB supply today from Germany (0.5% I/L 2030 Bonds and 0.1% I/L 2046 Bonds for a total amount of €750mn) and the Netherlands (0.75% 2028 Bonds).

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