banner

Ticker

* Cotações com atraso superior a 15 minutos via Bats CHI-X Europe e NASDAQ Basic

Patris Daily - 1 October 2018

1 Oct 2018

noticias/Diario-Fincor.jpg

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW:

Europe: The session was negative for the major European stock indices. Italy (-3.83%) underperformed, following the release of the budget plans by the Italian government.

STOXX 600 (-0.83%) closed negative, with only two sectors registering gains: Food & Beverages (+0.13%) and Travel & Leisure (+0.13%). Banks (-2.76%) and Insurance (-1.76%) were hit the hardest.

Eurozone sovereign debt market: Mixed session for 10-year EGB yields. 10-year BTPS increased by 25.7 bps to 3.138%. Greece (+12bps to 4.119%) also underperformed.

Portugal: PSI20 closed 1.20% lower on Friday, on the back of the negative mood in Europe. Galp Energia (+0.89%) and F. Ramada (+0.51%) were the only members in the index that closed positive. The remaining 16 members closed on the red. Mota-Engil (-4.3%) and BCP (-3.5%) were hit the hardest.

FX & Commodities: The first future of Brent finished the day up by 1.22% (+0.35% as we type). Gold closed 0.68% higher (-0.39% as we type). EUR/USD finished the day -0.32% lower (-0.22% as we type). According to press reports, US President Donald Trump and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz spoke over the weekend, and discussed efforts to maintain supplies to ensure the stability of the oil market.

Asia: With domestic Chinese and Hong Kong indices closed, major equity indices traded with a mixed tone: TOPIX +0.04% (with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a high since 1991), KOSPI -0.18%, TAIEX +0.41% and S&P/ASX200 -0.57%.

China’s official manufacturing PMI declined to 50.8 in September, from 51.3 in August (vs, consensus 51.2). All the major sub-indexes weakened. The official non-manufacturing PMI stood at 54.9 in September (vs. consensus 54.0), after 54.2 in August, reflecting the rise in the construction PMI. Meanwhile, the Caixin manufacturing PMI came out at 50.0 in September (vs. consensus 50.5), after 50.6 in August, the weakest reading since May 2017. The output and new orders sub-indexes both weakened in September.

US Equity & Debt Markets: S&P500 closed unchanged on theday. 5 out of the main 11 sectors closed positive: Utilities (+1.51%) and Real Estate were the main outperformers Financials (-1.06%) and Materials (-0.68%) suffered the most.

Latin America: In Brazil, according to a poll released by CNT/MDA, Jair Bolsonaro continues to lead voting intentions for the 1st round of the presidential elections that takes place next Sunday with 28.2% (unchanged vs. 17 Setpember). He is followed by Fernando Haddad with 25.2% (vs. 17.6% previously), Ciro Gomes (9.4%), Geraldo Alckmin (7.3%) and Marina Silva (2.6%). 2nd round simulations show Fernando Haddad beating Jair Bolsonaro (42.7% vs. 37.3% vs. 35.7% - 39.0% as of 17 September).

In Japan, BoJ Tankan business sentiment weakened in Spetember.

OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA:

Eurozone: September Flash HICP Inflation

Euro area flash HICP inflation for September came out in line with consensus expectations at 2.1%y/y, after 2.0%y/y in August. However, core HICP inflation disappointed at 0.9%y/y, slowing down from 1.0%y/y in August and standing below consensus expectations of 1.1%y/y. Details released by Eurostat showed NEIG and services inflation remaining stable at 0.4%y/y and 1.3%, respectively. Energy inflation accelerated to 9.5%y/y (vs. 9.2%y/y in August), while food inflation stood at 2.7%y/y (vs. 2.4%y/y in August), reflecting higher inflation in unprocessed food (from 2.5%y/y to 3.2%y/y).

US: August Personal Spending/Income Report

Nominal personal income rose +0.3%m/m in August (vs. consensus +0.4%m/m), while nominal personal spending increased 0.3%m/m, in line with consensus expectations. Wage and salary growth was solid in August, rising by 0.5%m/m, while growth in disposable income rose 0.3%m/m. The saving rate remained stable at 6.6%. Real disposable income rose 0.2%m/m in August. The 3-month annualised change in real personal consumption expenditures stood at 3.8% in August (vs. 4.3% in July).

The headline PCE index rose 0.1%m/m (+0.108% rounded to three decimals), while core PCE inflation was flat (+0.037% rounded to three decimals). Consensus expected 0.1%m/m gains for both headline and core PCE inflation. This leaves headline and core PCE inflation at 2.2%y/y and 2.0%y/y, respectively, in line with consensus expectations.

US: Chicago Purchasing Manager Index

The index dropped from 63.6 in August to 60.4 in September, below consensus of 62.0. The index reached a 5-month low.

US: September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index:

The Michigan index final reading for September stood at 100.1 (vs. preliminary reading of 100.8), below the survey expectations of 100.6, but above the August print of 96.2. The index reached the highest level since March 2018.

The current conditions gauge advanced to 115.2 from 110.3 in August, below the preliminary reading of 116.1. The expectations measure climbed to 90.5 from 87.1 in the previous month, vs. preliminary reading of 91.1.

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Sonae: Sonae has agreed to buy Corpfin Capital’s 60% stake in Tomenider, owner of Arenal Perfumerias, for about €45mn, according to a regulatory filing. Arenal is a parapharmacy and perfume retail Company with 41 stores in the north of Spain. The company had sales of €97mn in 2017. Arenal’s founding Vazquez family will keep a 40% stake in Tormenider and will continue managing the business, according to Sonae. The transaction is expected to conclude during 1Q19 (Bloomberg)

EDP: Capital Group Companies reduced its stake in EDP to 2.958% as of 28 September, according to a regulatory filing (Bloomberg)

Merlin: Merlin Properties Socimi plans to put 800,000 square meters of logistics space on the market over the next three years, CEO Ismael Clemente told El Pais in interview (Bloomberg)

Red Electrica: The group’s new Chairman Jordi Sevilla has put the plan to buy Hispasat on hold, according to Expansion (Bloomberg)

Italy: Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini denounced what he calls a “Europe which threatens to put the government and Italians under its control” (Bloomberg)

Italy: European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said that what emerges so far from the budget discussions in Italy does not seems to be in line with the stability and growth pact. He added that a formal European Commission opinion will be given once the formal plan is submitted by mid-October. According to Valdis Dombrovskis, it is important for Italy to stay on track with a responsible fiscal policy, given that the country has the second-highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU (Bloomberg)

Italy: Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said Italy is not seeking a clash with the European Union and dialog with institutions and private investors will now start (Bloomberg)

Italy: Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini said the markets will come to terms with the budget (Bloomberg)

Ryanair: The group cut its full-year profit view to €1.10bn-€1.20bn due to higher prices of unhedged oil, lower traffic and higher €261mn costs from recent strikes. Raynair had previously forecast FY19 profit of €1.25bn-€1.35bn (Bloomberg)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY: Focus should be on the final Markit manufacturing PMI reading for September.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For further information, or to receive the PDF file, please contact +351 912 897 835 or research@fincor.pt

Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this report was prepared by PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA ("Patris"), which is part of the group of companies whose holding is PATRIS INVESTIMENTOS, SGPS, SA (Patris Group), listed in Alternext, which holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of REAL VIDA SEGUROS SA which, in turn, holds 100% of the share capital and voting rights of Patris.

The information contained herein is based on publicly available data obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has not been subject to independent verification. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Patris does not expressly or impliedly guarantee the accuracy, completeness and / or correctness of such data, or any omission. This document, or part thereof, may not be (i) modified, (ii) transmitted or distributed or (iii) copied or duplicated by any means or means, without the prior written consent of Patris.

The analysts involved in the preparation of this report did not receive, receive and will not receive any compensation, direct or indirect, based on the information contained in this report.

PATRIS - SOCIEDADE CORRETORA, SA or another company of the Patris Group or its respective shareholders, management, and / or employees may carry out personal transactions on the securities referred to in this report, at any time and without prior notice.

Any opinion contained in this report may be outdated as a result of changes in market conditions, applicable laws and other factors. It should also be considered that the analyst may make changes to the estimates, assumptions and evaluation methodology used.

This report has been prepared for information purposes only, not taking into account the specific investment goals, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive the report. This report therefore has no specific recipient.

Patris is subject to high internal standards of behavior associated with the capital market, prepared on the basis of the applicable legislation of the Portuguese State and the European Union, which include rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest and barriers to the disclosure of information.

Investors should bear in mind that the rate of return on the securities identified in this report - if any reference is made to those returns - may vary and the price of such securities may rise or fall. Investors should thus be aware that they may receive less than initially invested. While this report may refer to the historical performance of securities, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In addition, market conditions, applicable laws and other factors that have an effect on performance are all likely to change, with the consequent change in the information contained in this report. Patris or any other company of the Patris Group does not accept, to the extent permitted by applicable law, any liability, whether direct or indirect, resulting from losses that may arise due to the use of the information contained in this report.

Patris's activity is overseen by the Bank of Portugal and the Securities Market Commission

Voltar