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Markit manufacturing PMIs decline in September in both Spain and Italy

2 Oct 2018

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Eurozone: September IHS Markit manufacturing PMIs

Bottom-line: The final reading for September manufacturing index was little changed compared to the flash print (-0.1 points to 53.2), which puts the monthly fall in 1.4 points and the index at the lowest level since September 2016. The 3Q18 average stands at 54.3 (vs. 55.5 in 2Q18 and 56.9 in 1H18). The Markit manufacturing PMI is still not showing signs of a better momentum ahead for Euro Area’s manufacturing output.

The new export orders sub-index for the region was little changed in September, rising only slightly and at the weakest rate in the current 63-month sequence of growth. The total new orders sub-index showed the weakest gain for 25 months. The output sub-index reached the lowest reading since May 2016, while the employment sub-index stood at the lowest level in over a year-and-a-half. Input price inflation eased in September to the lowest in 13 months (although remaining at an elevated level), while the output price sub-index reached a three-month high (pricing power especially stronger in the Netherlands and Germany). Business sentiment reached a 35-month low in September.

Details:

Spain: Markit manufacturing PMI declined by 1.6 points in September to 51.4 in September (vs. consensus 52.6). This is the lowest reading since August 2016, and consistent with a subdued manufacturing confidence. 3Q18 average stood at 52.4, 1.3 points below the 2Q18 average and 2.1 points below the 1H18 average.

The details of the survey showed weaker increases in September in output, new orders (both at the weakest level in two years) and employment sub-indexes. On the price front, the rate of input cost inflation increased slightly and remained at an elevated level (above the series average). Output prices were raised in September, following the first decline in almost two years in August. Business confidence for the following 12 months improved.

Italy: Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI was little changed in September (-0.1 points to 50.0, vs. consensus 50.2). The 3Q18 average stands at 50.5, which compares to 53.2 in 2Q18 and 55.1 in 1H18. This suggests a slowdown in manufacturing during 3Q18, with the sector having reached a standstill at the end of the quarter (the first time in just over two years that the sector has failed to expand).

The details of the survey showed that output and new orders both fell marginally in September, for the second month in a row (mainly on the back of weak domestic demand). The employment sub-index weakened in September. The rate of job creation was marginal and the lowest since the start of 2015. On the price front, input prices rose at slower, but still elevated rate (the lowest reading in 13 months). Output prices increased, while confidence improved to a four-month high (amid positive projections for foreign demand and projecting an increase in investment). Export orders rose marginally in September.

Other countries: Markit manufacturing PMIs declined in Greece (-0.3 points to 53.6), Ireland (-1.2 points to 56.3) and Austria (-1.4 points to 55.0), while the index rose in the Netherlands (+0.7 points to 59.8).

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