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PATRIS

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 18 February 2019

18 Feb 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.US Markets are closed today. 2.Fed minutes from the January meeting will be released on Wednesday. Market attention will probably be on any discussion of the possibility of ending balance sheet reduction in 2019. In the Euro area, ECB...

PATRIS - MACRO - Eurozone Markit composite PMI rises in February. Manufacturing sector and PMIs outside France and Germany remain key issues.

21 Feb 2019

Bottom-Line: The Markit composite PMI for the Euro area increased by 0.4 points to 51.4 (vs. consensus 51.1), on the back of a decline in manufacturing into contractionary territory (-1.3 points to 49.2, vs. consensus 50.3, the lowest level since June...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 15 February 2019

15 Feb 2019

S&P 500 S&P 500 traded around its 200-day moving average. We define as next resistance level, the range 2800 - 2817 that corresponds to Oct. - Nov. - Dec. 2018 highs. Technical indicators are already at high levels, which increases the risks...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 11 February 2019

11 Feb 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.In Spain, the parliament will consider Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s 2019 budget on Wednesday. Will Sanchez be under pressure to resign if parliament rejects his budget? 2.On the economic calendar, following the Chinese New Year, focus should be...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 8 February 2019

8 Feb 2019

S&P 500 S&P 500 touched its 200-day moving average, and immediately saw a pullback. Daily momentum indicators are already at high levels. Risks of a stronger pullback will probably continue to increase over the coming days. We define as next target 2646...

PATRIS MACRO - The Markit composite PMI in Italy declined in January to the lowest level since November 2013

5 Feb 2019

Bottom-Line: The final reading of the composite PMI for the eurozone was revised up by 0.3 points to 51.0, which leaves the index little changed from December’s final reading (51.1) but still well below the 4Q18 average (52.3). The services PMI...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 4 February 2019

4 Feb 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.In Brazil, the COPOM will meet on Wednesday. The MPC is expected to leave the SELIC policy rate unchanged at 6.50% for a seventh time, reflecting better-than-expected inflation readings, weak pace of economic growth and well...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 1 February 2019

1 Feb 2019

S&P500 As we type, the index is up by more than 15% from its December lows. A move closer to 2714 (61.8% retracement of the downward move between September and December 2018) or even to the 200-day moving average (2741) still seems...

PATRIS - Zona Euro - Italian manufacturing PMI recorded the fourth consecutive print below the 50.0 no-change threshold in January

1 Feb 2019

Bottom-Line: The Euro area January Markit manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.5 from the flash reading, and remained at the lowest level since November 2014. The 0.9-point decline recorded in January suggests that the manufacturing sector continued to weaken at the...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 28 January 2019

28 Jan 2019

Key themes for the upcoming week: 1.The second round of trade talks between the US and China since a truce began on 1 December 2018 will take place on 30-31 January 2019 in Washington, with China’s Vice Premier Liu He, the US trade...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 25 January 2019

25 Jan 2019

S&P500 S&P500 index stabilised over the last week, with a slight pullback. The index remains above its 50-day moving average. Daily technical indicators are still not overbought. We maintain last week’s target, i.e. the range between 2714 (61.8% retracement of the downward...

PATRIS MACRO - Key takeaways from today

24 Jan 2019

Bottom-Line: The main refinancing, marginal lending facility and deposit rates were left unchanged at 0.00% 0.25% and -0.40%, respectively, in line with consensus. There were also no formal changes to the policy guidance (both on rates and on reinvestment of bond principal). Rates guidance still...

PATRIS MACRO - Euro Area - Markit composite PMI declined in January to the lowest level since July 2013

24 Jan 2019

Bottom-Line: The flash Markit composite PMI fell by 0.4 points to 50.7 in January (vs. consensus 51.4), consistent with a very weak pace of expansion for the Euro Area economy. This is the lowest level since July 2013. Both manufacturing (-0.9 points...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 21 January 2019

21 Jan 2019

Key themes for this week: 1.Standard & Poor’s affirmed Greece at B+/Positive last Friday. 2.US stock and bond markets will be closed today in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. 3.Sonae will report 4Q18/FY18 sales for its retail division on the 23rd of January. 4.The ECB Governing Council announces...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 18 January 2019

18 Jan 2019

S&P500 S&P500 index continues its rebound from its December low, gaining around +12%. The index reached its 50-day moving average, as suggested in our last commentary. In the short-term, we see risks of a pullback towards 2574. Technical indicators are still...

Outlook 1Q19 - Fixed Income

15 Jan 2019

Fixed Income FOMC (slide 19) Federal Reserve’s policy to become more data-dependent. The Fed will likely take its time… in order to gauge market conditions Long-term inflation expectations are still too low to be consistent with the Fed’s meeting its inflation target over the...

Outlook 1Q19 - Equities

14 Jan 2019

Equities (slide 38) Will equities be able to show a sustained period of outperformance over other assets from here on? In the US, conditions may now be favourable for a post mid-term election rally… The unemployment trough usually takes place before the start...

Outlook 1Q19 - Credit + Emerging Markets

14 Jan 2019

Credit (slide 29) 4Q18 spread widening has returned some value to corporates. Searching for catalysts that could lead to a more favourable evolution… Slowing profit growth is a stronger headwind for corporate bond excess returns than for equities; Rising rates may expose vulnerable parts...

Outlook 1Q19 - Macro

14 Jan 2019

Macro (slide 3) A look ahead into 2019 ... in 11 bullet points 1.“2020 fiscal cliff” is seen as a clear risk to President Trump winning re-election in 2020, as the primaries for the 2020 election get underway. A coalition between House Speaker...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 14 January 2019

14 Jan 2019

Key themes for this week: 1.DBRS confirmed Italy at BBB (high)/Stable Trend. Fitch affirmed Spain at A-/Stable Outlook. On Sunday, Italy’s Treasury Minister said that there could be a period of economic stagnation for the country, while adding that he did not see a recession. 2.Meaningful...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 11 January 2019

11 Jan 2019

S&P 500 A move closer to its 50-day moving average (2636) would mean that the index had recovered 50% of the Sep-Dec 2018 decline. Over the coming week, we will search for signs that the S&P500 has reached a resistance area...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 7 January 2019

7 Jan 2019

Key themes for this week: 1.The debate on Prime Minister May’s BREXIT deal restarts this week as parliament returns from recess. Investors will probably also watch out for news around the General Affairs Council on Tuesday. Meanwhile, according to press reports, Theresa May might...

PATRIS Macro - Eurozone composite PMI reached in December the lowest level since November 2014

4 Jan 2019

Bottom-Line: The final reading for the Euro Area December’s composite PMI showed a 0.2 downward revision to 51.1, reflecting a similar revision on the services PMI. Therefore, the composite PMI fell by 1.6 points in December, and reached its lowest level since...

PATRIS - Macro - December Markit Manufacturing PMI declines in Spain, while it remains in contraction territory in Italy

2 Jan 2019

Bottom-Line: There was no change in the final reading of December’s manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone. Therefore, the index fell by 0.4 points to 51.4 in December, the lowest level since February 2016. 4Q18 average stood at 51.7 (vs. 54.3 in 3Q18),...

Patris Monthly Newsletter - December 2018

31 Dec 2018

Overview: In Portugal, the General Government balance was marginally positive in the year ending in 3Q18, comparing with a net borrowing of 1.0% of GDP in the previous quarter; The Bank of Portugal now expects the economy to grow 2.1% in 2018...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 31 December 2018

31 Dec 2018

This is an abbreviated version of the PATRIS The Week Ahead report. The publication of the usual format will resume next week. Key themes for the coming week: 1.The Italian parliament on Saturday passed the government’s 2019 budget (by 327 to 228),...

PATRIS the week ahead - 24 December 2018

31 Dec 2018

This is an abbreviated version of the weekly publication PATRIS the Week Ahead. The full version will be back as of 7th January 2018. Few economic indicators are scheduled to be released in the week of Christmas. Focus should be on...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 18 December 2018

18 Dec 2018

S&P500 As suggested in our last commentary, S&P500 fell (slightly) below its February 2018 low (2533). We look for stabilisation signs, preferably below 2500. We define an overshooting level at 2464 (in order to allow for a stronger VIX). RSI close to...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 17 December 2018

17 Dec 2018

Key themes for the coming week: 1.On Saturday, in Mexico, the Finance Minister presented the 2019 budget. The plan is due to be approved by Congress before the end of the year and targets a primary budget surplus of 1% of GDP (vs....

PATRIS - MACRO - The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell again in December

14 Dec 2018

Bottom-Line: The flash Markit Eurozone composite PMI fell by 1.4 points to 51.3 in December (vs. consensus 52.8), the lowest level since November 2014, reflecting the strong decline recorded in France (due to the “gilets jaunes” protests). The PMI in Germany...

PATRIS - MACRO - Key takeaways from ECB

13 Dec 2018

Bottom-Line: Mario Draghi’s introductory statement showed a more cautious assessment of the growth outlook for the region. Risks were still seen as broadly balanced, but the Governing Council now sees the balance of risks moving to the downside. The central bank’s GDP...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 10 December 2018

10 Dec 2018

Key themes for the week ahead: 1.The vote on the Prime Minister’s BREXIT deal will take place on Tuesday. Betting odds suggest that the deal will fail to make it through Parliament on the first attempt. If the Parliament does not...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 6 December 2018

6 Dec 2018

S&P500 S&P500 was unable to break through its October/November highs. As we type, the index moved again towards the November lows. We are watching closely the VIX index. We see risks of a move closer to 35…As mentioned in previous commentaries, we...

PATRIS - MACRO - Key takeaways from November

5 Dec 2018

Bottom-Line: The final reading for the November Markit Eurozone composite PMI showed a 0.3 points upward revision from the preliminary reading to 52.7. This is still the lowest reading since September 2016. The October/November average (52.9) remains well below the 3Q18 level...

PATRIS - MACRO - The November Markit PMI suggests that industrial output will remain weak in 4Q18. In Italy, the PMI declined to the lowest level since December 2014

3 Dec 2018

Bottom-Line: The final reading for the Markit manufacturing PMI was revised upwardly by 0.3 points to 51.8, which brings the change in November to a modest 0.2 points decline. This is still the lowest reading since August 2016. The October/November average stands at...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 3 December 2018

3 Dec 2018

Key themes for the coming week: 1.The results of the Trump-Xi meeting will be the focus of markets this week. The meeting ended with a temporary ceasefire in the trade dispute. The 10% tariff rate imposed on $200bn of Chinese imports will...

PATRIS Monthly Newsletter - November 2018

3 Dec 2018

Overview:  The Portuguese GDP grew 0.3%q/q and 2.1%y/y in 3Q18 (vs 0.6%q/q and 2.4%y/y in 2Q18); Italian bonds rallied sharply over the last few weeks, on reports that the government may adopt a more flexible approach on the 2019 budget. The EU...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 26 November 2018

26 Nov 2018

Key themes for the coming week: 1.At Sunday’s European Council meeting, the EU27 leaders endorsed the draft Withdrawal Agreement and the draft Future Framework at the political level. Focus should now be on the vote in the UK Parliament, scheduled to take...

PATRIS - MACRO - Eurozone: Markit composite PMI declines in November and suggests that the economy may not rebound in 4Q18

26 Nov 2018

Bottom-Line: The Markit composite PMI fell 0.7 points in November to 52.4, according to the preliminary reading released this morning (vs. consensus 53.0). This is the lowest value since the end of 2014. The October/November average stands at 52.8, after 54.3 in...

Key Takeways from September FOMC meeting

27 Sep 2018

Bottom line: The FOMC raised interest rates by 25bps, as widely expected, bringing the fed funds target range to 2.00%-2.25%, and continuing its gradual withdrawal of policy accommodation. As Jerome Powell recognised in his press conference, the economy has been...

Patris Daily - 19 September 2018

19 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: With the exception of the UK (-0.03%), the main European stock indices closed the session in positive territory. Portugal (+0.61%) and Italy (+0.55%) registered the biggest gains. STOXX600 closed +0.11% higher, with 10 out of 19 sectors...