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Notícias Patris

PATRIS

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 15 April 2019

15 Apr 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that a US-China trade agreement would go well beyond previous efforts to open China’s markets to US companies and hoped that the two sides were close to the final...

PATRIS MACRO - Key takeaways from this week's ECB policy meeting

10 Apr 2019

Key conclusions: The ECB stayed today on hold, as widely expected, after extending the guidance on rates and announcing TLTRO III last month. Mario Draghi mentioned that it is too early to commit to TLTRO III details (markets already saw a decision...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 8 April 2019

8 Apr 2019

S&P500 S&P500 had a positive week and moved above the two resistance levels defined last week. The index is now very close to its historical highs. The Mar. 2019 - Apr. 2019 highs haven’t been backed by higher levels of technical indicators....

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 8 April 2019

8 Apr 2019

Key themes for the week ahead: 1.DBRS confirmed Portugal at BBB, but the trend was changed to Positive from Stable, as “the fiscal deficit is slowly approaching balance and the government debt-to-GDP ratio is declining at a healthy pace”. Moreover, “Portuguese banks’ non-performing...

PATRIS MACRO - Markit Composite PMIs in Spain and Italy show increases in March

3 Apr 2019

Bottom-Line: Eurozone March final readings for the Composite PMI (+0.3 points to 51.6, vs. 51.9 in February) and the Services PMI (+0.6 points to 53.3, vs. 52.8 in February) both revealed upward revisions from the flash readings disclosed on 22 March....

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 1 April 2019

1 Apr 2019

S&P500 S&P500 found support around 2800, the 3 December 2018 high, and quickly rebounded. The index is, once again, trading above the Oct.-Nov.-Dec. 2018 highs. In the near-term, we define as resistance level, 2860 (21 March 2019 high). Beyond that, we would...

PATRIS MACRO - Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped again in Italy in March and reached the lowest reading since May 2013

1 Apr 2019

Bottom-Line: The final value for March Markit manufacturing PMI was little changed compared to the flash reading (-0.1 points to 47.5). The index declined by 1.8 in March, reflecting the sharp fall posted by the German manufacturing PMI. This is the...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 1 April 2019

1 Apr 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.In China, the official manufacturing PMI increased in March to 50.5 (vs. consensus 49.6), from February’s three-year low of 49.2. This is the first reading above the 50 no-change mark in four months. The production sub-index rose by...

Patris Monthly Newsletter - March 2019

29 Mar 2019

Overview: According to the first notification for 2019 associated with the Excessive Deficit Procedure disclosed by INE, the general government budget balance stood at -0.5% of GDP in 2018. The Bank of Portugal coincident indicator for economic activity recorded the second monthly...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 25 March 2019

25 Mar 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.DBRS confirmed Spain at A/Stable, while Standard & Poor’s affirmed the country at A-/Positive. 2.Special Counsel Mueller did not find that any US person or Trump campaign official knowingly conspired with Russian, Attorney General Barr said...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 22 March 2019

22 Mar 2019

S&P500 S&P500 had a positive week and moved above the Oct.-Nov.-Dec. 2018 highs. Medium-term bias remains positive, for now. Despite S&P500 moving above the Oct.-Nov.-Dec. 2018 highs, daily technical indicators didn’t follow the move. Therefore, we see risks of S&P500 further consolidating...

PATRIS MACRO - Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed a strong fall in March

22 Mar 2019

Bottom-Line: The flash reading for the March PMIs survey showed that manufacturing activity remains in contraction, while domestic demand continues to help the service sector to be more resilient. Overall, the economy has probably recorded a modest pace of expansion during the...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 18 March 2019

18 Mar 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.Standard & Poor’s upgraded Portugal to BBB/Stable from BBB-/Positive. Following this upgrade, S&P has now aligned its rating to that of Fitch and DBRS, while Moody’s remains one notch below (BBB-/Stable). Standard & Poor’s expects...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 15 March 2019

15 Mar 2019

S&P500 S&P500 had a positive week but is struggling to move above the Oct.-Nov.-Dec. 2018 highs. In the near-term, and given the resistance faced by S&P500 around Oct.-Nov.-Dec. 2018 highs, we see possible a consolidation between those same highs and the 200-day...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 11 March 2019

11 Mar 2019

Key themes for this week: 1.Clocks moved forward 1 hour yesterday in the US, as daylight saving time started. 2.The UK will get the spotlight this week, as Parliament will vote meaningfully on the EU Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday. If Parliament rejects again...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 8 March 2019

8 Mar 2019

S&P500 S&P500 fell towards its 200-day moving average (2749). Sharp retracement seen in daily momentum indicators during last week suggests a rise in the short-term is possible. Downside risks remain unchanged. A move closer to the 100-day moving average (2679) is still...

Key takeaways from the ECB 6-7 March policy meeting

7 Mar 2019

Key conclusions: downgrading the macro path (with sharp cuts to GDP growth and HICP inflation projections in 2019) provided the needed backdrop to TLTRO III and to change its forward guidance on rates. Therefore, the ECB has probably delivered far more...

PATRIS MACRO - Eurozone - Markit composite PMI improves in February

6 Mar 2019

Bottom-Line: The final reading for February composite PMI in the eurozone was revised higher by 0.5 points to 51.9 from the flash print. This puts the monthly increase at 0.9 points and the index at its highest level since November 2018....

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 4 March 2019

4 Mar 2019

Key themes for the coming week: 1.Moody’s upgraded Greece to B1/Stable from B3/Positive previously, reflecting the fact that reforms implemented are starting to bear fruit, as well as the track record of strong fiscal performance. Moody’s highlighted that public debt sustainability...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 1 March 2019

1 Mar 2019

S&P500 The index has not been able to break the 2800-2817 range. The minor pullback confirms the idea that this range could be an important resistance in the near-term. Daily momentum indicators are weakening. This could push S&P500 towards the 200-day moving...

PATRIS - MACRO - Manufacturing PMI in Spain declined to the lowest level since November 2013

1 Mar 2019

Bottom-Line: The Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised slightly upwards from the flash reading (+0.1 points to 49.3). The PMI fell by 1.2 points in February to its lowest level since June 2013. By country, the weakest performers were Germany and...

Patris Monthly Newsletter - February 2019

28 Feb 2019

Overview: The Portuguese economy grew 0.4%q/q in 4Q18, well below the quarterly average pace of expansion recorded over the last three years (0.6%q/q); Asset quality remains a key challenge for the Portuguese banking sector. At the end of September 2018, according to...